Will the Chicago White Sox truly see an upgrade in their 2025 prospects?
Will the Chicago White Sox truly see an upgrade in their 2025 prospects?
It's challenging to envision a brighter future for the Chicago White Sox in 2025 than their dismal performances in 2024. Following their historic 41-121 season, predictions for the next year aren't looking much better. Although they might not set a new record for the worst seasons in the modern era (since 1901), don't anticipate a significant climb up the standings. Bookmakers have estimated the White Sox to win approximately 49 games in 2025, and their offseason thus far hasn't provided much reason to bet on exceeding that projected win total.
The offseason has seen some changes, but they don't offer a clear picture of what to expect next year. The team has made progress in some areas while taking a step back in others. And whereas there's a need for existing players to enhance their performances, there are concerns.
Chris Getz, the General Manager, resolved the debate early in the offseason regarding who would manage the White Sox after firing Pedro Grifol in early August and appointing Grady Sizemore as the interim manager for the remainder of the season. Will Venable was hired at the end of October, making him the second consecutive rookie manager to lead the White Sox.
Venable boasts ample coaching experience and has worked under successful managers like Joe Maddon, Alex Cora, and Bruce Bochy. Joining the White Sox, Venable recognizes the task of leading a 121-loss team.
"I don't think there's an easy managerial job," Venable said to reporters at his introductory press conference. "Every role brings its unique challenges, and I'm excited about the challenges that are presented here with this team. I've been on teams that have had to work hard to overachieve, and I'm comfortable with that mentality and that approach. I've seen it work even at the highest levels."
The challenge of guiding the White Sox through their 2025 season became more challenging when talented prospect pitcher Garrett Crochet was traded to the Boston Red Sox during the winter meetings in the second week of December. The win/loss projections placing the White Sox at 49 wins were published around a week after that trade, and the team has yet to make substantial improvements since. The trade enhanced the farm system, but the current major league squad is likely to struggle to win over 50 games.
One factor contributing to this struggle is the American League Central, a very tough division. The White Sox were the only team without a winning record, and one of only two (together with the Minnesota Twins) to miss the playoffs. Currently, all four other teams in the division are predicted to post winning records in 2025.
This alone doesn't guarantee a smooth path next year. However, the projected lineup expected to take the field in 2025 will need significant bounceback seasons from several players if results are to improve. The team's top two leaders in fWAR last season, Paul DeJong and Nicky Lopez, are both gone. DeJong was traded to the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline, and Lopez opted for free agency in November. Behind them, Luis Robert, Jr. was just 0.5 fWAR above replacement in 2024, marking the worst season of his career. He performed better in 2023, posting a 4.9 fWAR season with 38 home runs and 36 doubles. However, if 2024 was a sign of decline, the White Sox are in trouble. Robert's strikeout rate increased to over 33%, and his power dropped significantly, going from a .542 slugging percentage in 2023 to just .379 this year. Furthermore, without any substantial lineup protection next year, it's unlikely that Robert's numbers will significantly improve.
However, if there's a glimmer of hope for more wins for the White Sox in 2025, it might come from the pitching. The team still has a wealth of promising young starters, and their ongoing development could lead to a few additional wins in 2025. Every member of their projected starting rotation is under 30 years old, and they are headlined by 24-year-old Drew Thorpe, the central figure in the trade that sent Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres in March. Thorpe displayed signs of promise in his nine starts last season before bone spurs in his throwing elbow required surgery in September. Thorpe is expected to regain full health for the start of spring training.
Behind Thorpe, Jonathan Cannon and Sean Burke are both under 25 years old and have promising futures. And veteran Bryse Wilson, signed to a one-year $1.05 million deal earlier this month, brings seven years of major league experience, most recently with the National League Central champion Milwaukee Brewers.
Despite the promise that Thorpe, Cannon, and Burke present, they are still relatively green and inexperienced pitchers, so they are likely to confront growing pains in the upcoming season. On the other hand, if Robert, Jr. serves as the team's primary offensive hope, they are likely to struggle to score runs.
Overall, the Chicago White Sox ended up losing an astounding 121 games this season due to an unfavorable string of events. It's improbable for such misfortune to recur, but even with a slight improvement in fortune, they're not projected to win a significant number of additional games compared to 2024. The White Sox have shown initiative in bolstering their minor league system, but the major league squad is still several years away from becoming a formidable force. Regrettably, the primary obstacle hindering the team's success lies at the helm of the organization.
The White Sox's new manager, Will Venable, acknowledged the challenges of leading the team during his introductory press conference. He mentioned his experience in leading underachieving teams and his comfort with a hardworking mentality.
Despite the trade of Garrett Crochet to the Boston Red Sox, the Chicago White Sox's offseason moves haven't significantly improved their chances of surpassing the projected 49 wins for 2025. Drew Thorpe, a key prospect, is expected to regain full health and contribute to the team's pitching growth, but the young pitchers' inexperience and the lack of offensive power in the lineup could pose challenges.
[Assistant: 100%]