Will President Sheinbaum Overcome Mexico's Powerful Drug Gangs?
Mexico's President Sheinbaum Faces a Challenging Security Landscape
Mexico City, here she comes! Claudia Sheinbaum, the city's former mayor, now steps into a more daunting role as the country's president. With the extreme crime rates under her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Sheinbaum's administration is a continuation of the "Fourth Transformation" but with a heavy focus on security.
Over six years worth of statistics reveal a grim picture of organized crime activity during López Obrador's reign. 188,996 lives were lost in Mexico; crime data also reveals a disturbing rise in extortion incidents over the past five years. However, Sheinbaum is just getting started on her six-year term, and the hope remains high.
A recent survey showed that over 60% of respondents believe the security dynamic in Mexico will improve in 2025. Sheinbaum has promised to tackle the roots of crime through social programs but will also step up the game by improving police intelligence in Mexico.
Mexico City boasts the largest number of police patrols compared to any other state in the country. The capital hosts over 92,000 state police patrol officers, while the neighboring state of Morelos has only 2,000. Yet, the relatively low rates of violent crime in Mexico City may be hard to maintain in surrounding states.
When assessing Mexico's current security policies, Latin America expert Will Freeman from the Council on Foreign Relations in New York ranks Sheinbaum's efforts a C or D. He points out the weakness in her approach: her reluctance to address corruption and punish governors from her own party who are allegedly colluding with organized crime groups.
Freeman notes that confronting such governors may divide her party, but it's a necessary move to weaken these powerful groups. He believes corruption allows organized crime to prosper in Mexico, stating, "Nowhere in the world does organized crime grow as powerful as it is in Mexico without [protection]."
Although there have been some local-level alliances between governors and criminal groups, Freeman cautions against believing the claims that Mexico's federal government is actively working with drug cartels. He emphasizes that a few governors have been jailed within Mexico and extradited to the United States for ties to organized crime.
Mexico ranks as the third-worst country globally in terms of organized crime prevalence, as per the 2024 Rule of Law Index. The country's criminal justice institutions are ranked 134 out of 142 countries, highlighting the weak rule of law and limited institutional capacity in Mexico. As a result, violence remains rampant.
Overall, Sheinbaum has not yet shown promising signs of taking decisive action on security issues, such as a significant investment in hiring and training police across the country. Mexico's residents will have to wait and see how much progress Sheinbaum makes in reducing homicide levels and addressing a variety of organized crime activities like extortion and cargo truck hijacking.
But to truly make a difference in Mexico's security, Sheinbaum needs to go beyond the political barriers and tackle the deep-rooted corruption within local officials that has long fueled organized crime.
- Sheinbaum, now the country's president, will have to confront the significant challenge of organized crime that has escalated under previous administrations, as revealed by the surge in violent crime and extortion incidents.
- In her six-year term, Sheinbaum has pledged to prosecute the roots of crime through social programs and to enhance police intelligence in Mexico, hoping to improve the security landscape.
- Despite the heavy focus on security, experts like Will Freeman are cautiously optimistic about Sheinbaum's approach, emphasizing the importance of addressing corruption within her own party and local officials to dismantle the power of organized crime groups.
