Warm winter conditions in Europe are undermining Putin's strategic advantage

Warm winter conditions in Europe are undermining Putin's strategic advantage

As the conflict in Ukraine continues, some nations not directly involved are feeling the ripple effects, with their comfort and resources potentially compromised. This is particularly true for many European countries that have relied on Russian gas for heating homes and powering factories for several years.

The energy crisis caused by Russia's war has led to a surge in international coal demand, reaching a record high in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency. The complacency left Russia with numerous open objectives to kick at in significant Western European resources.

The threat of a gas supply cutoff was seen as a secret weapon that Putin could use if the conflict in Ukraine dragged into a long winter. However, European governments are now taking action to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and prepare for the upcoming winter.

One of the short-term measures being considered is expanding and better utilizing LNG infrastructure such as terminals and storage facilities. This would increase imports of liquefied natural gas from diverse suppliers like the US, Qatar, Norway, Algeria, and Azerbaijan.

Another measure is boosting gas storage levels immediately to mitigate winter supply shocks, as current levels have fallen below 40%, increasing vulnerability during cold months.

Governments are also accelerating demand reduction through energy efficiency measures and demand management, coordinating across member states to curb gas consumption where possible.

Enhancing interconnectors and internal gas distribution networks is another step being taken to maximize use of existing supplies and improve resilience within the EU's gas market.

Increasing monitoring and protection of maritime supply chain infrastructure, especially LNG shipping routes and undersea cables, is essential to secure supply against sabotage and geopolitical risks.

Leveraging short-term contracts and market-based mechanisms is also being used to secure flexible gas supply and smooth price volatility before longer-term renewables and hydrogen builds up.

These measures aim to diversify away from Russian supplies, which the EU plans to phase out by 2027, while managing the current geopolitical and seasonal volatility risks.

John Springford, replacement director at the Centre for European Reform, suggests that governments could do more to incentivize and accelerate the development of renewable energy sources, such as approving onshore wind farms and building storage capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, states that Russia sought to use winter to augment the power of another weapon: the energy tool. Despite countries agreeing to phase down coal use at the United Nations' climate conference in Glasgow, Europe found itself switching some of its recently closed coal nuclear power plants back on.

Critics accuse European governments of focusing too much on controlling the immediate cost of gas instead of investing in longer-term measures like efficiency and renewables. The historical complacency by Western powers towards Russia's energy threats has left Europe vulnerable, particularly Germany, according to Keir Giles.

The milder winter in Western and Central Europe has taken one of Putin's largest bargaining chips out of his hands. European governments now have a window of opportunity to reduce dependence on Russian gas before another winter happens. Adam Bell, a former UK government power authority, states that the mild winter has effectively bought Europe a year.

However, if European nations fail to seize this brief opportunity to strengthen their energy security, a return to the old complacency and a failure to support Europe's energy freedom is not impossible, even while bombs continue to fall on Ukraine. Western Europe had not been paying attention to the frontline states who warned about the Russian program's intent and recognized that more expensive power was a price worth paying for not being vulnerable to Russian pressure.

1. The surge in international coal demand, driven by the energy crisis caused by Russia's war, reached a record high in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.
2. Governments are looking to renewable energy sources as a long-term solution to reduce dependence on Russian gas, with John Springford suggesting incentivizing the development of onshore wind farms and building LNG storage capacity.
3. Despite agreeing to phase down coal use at the United Nations' climate conference, some European countries have switched recently closed coal and nuclear power plants back on due to the current geopolitical volatility.
4. Critics argue that European governments are prioritizing short-term cost control over long-term measures like energy efficiency and renewable energy development, leaving Europe vulnerable, particularly Germany, according to Keir Giles.
5. The mild winter in Western and Central Europe has taken one of Putin's largest bargaining chips out of his hands, providing European governments with an opportunity to reduce dependence on Russian gas before another winter happens.
6. If European nations fail to seize this opportunity to strengthen their energy security, a return to complacency and a failure to support Europe's energy freedom is not impossible, even as bombs continue to fall in Ukraine.

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