Wall Street's Attitude Towards Moderna Shares: Bullish or Bearish?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), a biotechnology company with a market cap of $10.7 billion, has underperformed the S&P 500 Index and its sector over the past 52 weeks. This underperformance can mainly be attributed to declining COVID-19 vaccine revenues and the market's expectation that the company must develop new successful products to drive future growth.
In Q2 2025, Moderna reported a better-than-expected loss of $2.13 per share and revenue of $142 million. However, the company trimmed its 2025 revenue guidance to $1.5 billion - $2.2 billion, which led to a 6.6% dip in Moderna's shares on Aug. 1.
Investors are cautious because Moderna's near-term financial performance depends heavily on the success of its new mRNA therapies and vaccines currently in clinical trials, such as against flu and cancer. The stock price decline of around 74% in the past year highlights the market's immediate concerns, as Moderna's current valuation reflects uncertainty about its ability to replace COVID-related revenues with new products.
While Moderna is viewed as having long-term potential due to its mRNA technology platform, the company is at a transition stage. Negative or weaker-than-expected financial results in 2025 could push the stock price down further. The overall S&P 500 has shown modest gains and stable forward earnings multiples, with some sectors like healthcare expected to grow in price, but Moderna’s decline suggests sector-specific challenges rather than broad market weakness.
Analysts forecast moderate growth in Moderna’s stock price by the end of 2025 but with a wide range of outcomes depending on clinical trial success and product approvals. Tim Anderson of BofA maintains an "Underperform" rating for Moderna and recently lowered its price target to $24 on Aug. 4. The current trading price of Moderna's stock is below the mean price target of $42.71.
Moderna's offerings include a broad pipeline of respiratory and latent virus vaccines, oncology therapeutics, and rare disease treatments. Despite the current challenges, the company has strategic collaborations with major global partners.
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Investors are wary about Moderna's financial future as the company's near-term performance relies heavily on the success of its new mRNA therapies and vaccines, such as those in clinical trials for flu and cancer.
The uncertainty surrounding Moderna's ability to replace COVID-related revenues with new products has led to a decline in its stock price, resulting in a current valuation that reflects this market concern.
