UK's Inflation Release Dates for Consumer Prices Index (CPI)
Inflation in the UK surged higher than anticipated in April, reaching 3.5%, marking the largest increase in over a year. The jump from the previous month's figure of 2.6% was expected following an increase in household bills, but the rate was still above the projected figure, exceeding the Bank of England's forecast of 3.4%.
With this latest report, expectations for a potential interest rate cut in June have diminished significantly. Rate setters will scrutinize upcoming reports before deciding whether an August interest rate cut is still possible.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases the UK's main measure of inflation, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), on a monthly basis. This report covers the previous month's data. Here is the current release schedule for 2025:
- 18 June (covering May)
- 16 July (covering June)
- 20 August (covering July)
- 17 September (covering August)
- 22 October (covering September)
- 19 November (covering October)
- 17 December (covering November)
- 21 January 2026 (covering December)
The ONS discloses the latest CPI data at 7:00 a.m. on a monthly basis. To access the data, individuals can visit the ONS website and review the release calendar, which includes all published and upcoming releases.
The CPI measures the change in prices for a typical basket of household goods and services over time. The basket includes various items, ranging from basic food items such as eggs, flour, and milk to more luxury products such as hotel costs, restaurant meals, and air fryers. The CPI basket is periodically adjusted to account for current trends in consumption.
The Bank of England keeps an eye on the CPI when setting interest rates. If inflation is high, the Bank raises interest rates to curb consumer spending and cool the economy, which helps reduce prices as households have less disposable income. Conversely, if inflation is low, the Bank may lower interest rates to boost consumer spending, pushing prices back up due to increased demand.
While the Bank of England expects the current surge in inflation to be temporary, peaking in the third quarter of this year at around 3.5% before returning to its 2% target, April's report showed a higher than anticipated increase in core and services inflation. Core inflation climbed from 3.4% to 3.8%, while services inflation rose from 4.7% to 5.4%.
Services inflation is particularly important as it represents around 80% of the UK economy. Some economists believe services inflation is set to improve, with categories such as car tax and airfares contributing to the current high figure but not necessarily indicative of persistent inflationary pressures. The high car tax increases and Easter-related airfare costs could wash out of the data within a year.
Outside of these factors, financial institution ING states that services inflation improved in April, with lower rates of inflation observed in categories like restaurants, medical services, and rents. Energy prices are also expected to decrease this summer, which could further ease overall inflation rates. According to consultancy Cornwall Insight, the energy price cap could drop by 7% at the start of July.
Subscribing to the ONS newsletter for regular updates on personal finance and inflation rates might prove beneficial, considering the Bank of England's scrutiny of these figures when setting interest rates. As business operators, it's essential to stay informed about interest rates and inflation rates, as they can significantly impact the economy and one's household budget.
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