The Unforeseeable Lessons from the Unpredictable 2024/25 Premier League Season
The Unforeseeable Lessons from the Unpredictable 2024/25 Premier League Season
Regardless of Manchester City's dominance in recent years, predicting the Premier League is still a challenge. As we reach the midpoint of this season, even experts and AI models struggled to predict the current state of affairs.
Man City, who usually sits comfortably at the top, has now been overtaken by Liverpool. Meanwhile, surprising teams like Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, and Fulham are aiming for European soccer in 2025. Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, despite their flaws, are experiencing one of their worst starts in recent history.
This season has also seen other interesting developments. For instance, Brentford scoring in the first minute of three consecutive games, Arsenal becoming dangerous from corner kicks, and Forest's Chris Wood becoming a prolific goalscorer at the age of 33.
So, what lessons can we draw from the varying performances in the Premier League?
Liverpool's Marginal Gains Pay Off Big Time
Teams like Brentford, with their ability to get an edge during home games, and Arsenal, with their threat from set pieces, demonstrate the importance of slight advantages over opponents. But perhaps the most compelling example of marginal gains can be seen at Liverpool.
When a coach as influential as Jürgen Klopp leaves, it's natural to expect significant changes. However, Arne Slot has surprisingly stuck to the club's tried-and-tested strategies. He's managed to keep Liverpool's star-studded squad largely intact, spending only €12 million on winger Federico Chiesa. Slot has also maintained the team's high-energy playstyle, making only minor adjustments.
These adjustments include better utilization of the strikers, with players like Mohamed Salah and Luis Díaz still contributing defensively while having more opportunities to score. The new, more controlled style of play allows them to inflict more damage on opponents in the final third. Overall, Liverpool appears more assured both offensively and defensively, and they seem content with winning in less spectacular fashion.
Despite concerns arising from a quiet transfer window, Liverpool has focused on chemistry and getting the most out of their existing players. They've recruited selectively, bringing in Dutch and Spanish-speaking players to help each other out in an English-dominated environment. Furthermore, they've given young talents like Curtis Jones the chance to shine without blocking their pathways.
Dynasties Collapse
There are clear reasons for Manchester City's dramatic fall from grace this term. Key midfielder Rodri's absence and a weaker, more fatigued squad are contributing factors. After 13 matches across all competitions, City has only scored one win, drawn three times, and lost nine.
The psychological impact of their recent struggles is equally intriguing. City, renowned for their consistent title wins, now finds itself fighting for Champions League spots. Confidence and momentum are crucial in professional sports. City was previously an unstoppable force, but their campaigns aren't programmed for recovery from setbacks.
With champions not expected to fail, opponents are immediately at a disadvantage. However, with City's current struggles, the psychological advantage has shifted. City no longer looms as an unbeatable force. There's no need to feel intimidated anymore.
Then there's the investigation into Manchester City's alleged breaches of Premier League rules, which could be putting pressure on the club. All these factors, some more tangible than others, have played a role in City's decline. As Manchester United knows all too well, dominance isn't eternal; it's surprisingly fragile.
Be Flexible, Not Stubborn
Examining the most successful teams from the past decade, it's easy to believe that victory comes from a rigid adherence to the game's ideals. However, this season has shown that adaptability brings rewards. Frustrated managers like Tottenham's Ange Postecoglou, dealing with a series of injuries, insist on an expansive yet risky style of play, while departing Southampton boss Russell Martin chose a style that best suited his players.
Manchester United's Ruben Amorim and Spurs' Postecoglou, with their unconventional beliefs, may eventually see success with the right backing. Until then, being flexible pays off, as the league's traditional pecking order evolves into something new. The first few months of the year may reveal even more surprises as the table takes on a new shape.
In the world of business and sports money, Liverpool's approach under Arne Slot illustrates the importance of maintaining strategies that work while making minor adjustments for improved results. Despite the departure of Jürgen Klopp, Slot has managed to preserve Liverpool's squad and playstyle, enhancing their efficiency in the final third and becoming more assured both offensively and defensively.
On the other hand, Manchester City's dominance appears to be waning, with key midfielder Rodri's absence, a weaker squad, and less resilience in recovering from setbacks contributing to their struggles. They are now facing challenges previously uncommon for such a successful club, demonstrating that dynasties can eventually collapse due to various factors, including internal issues and external pressures.