SUI Faces Challenges in Recovering $3 Billion, Potential for Further Decline?

SUI Faces Challenges in Recovering $3 Billion, Potential for Further Decline?

In the wake of recent geopolitical tensions, several major assets are attempting to find their footing, with SUI being one of them. The native token of the Sui network, SUI, has been in a downtrend for most of the month, falling below its 50-day moving average and forming a descending channel.

The future of SUI is a topic of much discussion among analysts and crypto experts, with various forecasts and predictions pointing towards potential recovery or further losses. Multiple sources forecast SUI's price in 2025 to range between $2.20 and $6.90, with institutional adoption and technological advancements cited as key growth drivers. Some analyses predict a bullish price window for SUI starting mid-July to mid-August 2025, following a consolidation and a short-lived rally in spring 2025.

Technical outlooks emphasize the importance of SUI maintaining key support levels around $2.60–$2.80. Holding above these levels may sustain a trading range between approximately $2.85 and $3.20, with a break above $3.20 potentially triggering stronger bullish momentum and attracting new investors. On the downside, if market risk aversion persists or Bitcoin's performance drags down altcoins, SUI could revisit support levels near $2.50.

Sui has demonstrated fundamental strengths with metrics such as a TVL exceeding $2.08 billion and daily DEX volumes around $304 million in early 2025. Additionally, growing user activity on SocialFi applications like RECRD and FanTV, reaching nearly one million daily active users on some platforms, bolsters network utility and investor interest. These factors support a potential sustained recovery or further upward price movement if momentum builds.

However, there are risks to consider. While specific details on token unlocks were not highlighted in these sources, token unlocks typically increase circulating supply and may exert downward pressure if market demand does not keep pace. The relatively short-lived rally earlier in 2025 indicates that positive price movements may need continued catalyst events or broader market improvements to be sustained.

The weakness in SUI is also occurring amid a broader cooldown in the crypto market. SUI has struggled to regain bullish momentum since slumping from its highs earlier this year. Fading activity in derivatives trading indicates fading confidence among market participants. In the past 24 hours, SUI recorded a 1.4% uptick, but from this month's peak of $3.50, SUI has dropped approximately 22.9%.

Currently, SUI is trading around $2.71, with a circulating supply of 3.45 billion tokens, which is approximately 34.5% of the 10 billion total supply. Open Interest in SUI futures has declined, currently sitting at around $1.18 billion, suggesting declining trader conviction. More than 5.2 billion SUI tokens remain locked.

It's important to note that Bitcoin investors currently hold $1.2 trillion in profits, according to Glassnode, while HODLing dominates among Bitcoin investors. The current key support level for SUI is $2.30, and a decisive move below this could further deepen losses for SUI.

Investors should monitor these technical thresholds, market sentiment, and ongoing project developments closely, as SUI's potential recovery is cautiously optimistic, with forecasts indicating possible price appreciation towards $3–$6.90 during 2025 under favorable conditions, supported by solid fundamentals and ecosystem growth. However, market conditions remain a critical factor, and failure to hold key support levels or increased selling pressure from token unlocks could lead to further losses.

1. Binance, a popular cryptocurrency exchange, is currently listing SUI, the native token of the Sui network, for trading.
2. Some analysts believe that Decentralized Finance ( DeFi ) protocols built on the Sui blockchain could significantly boost the value of SUI in the future, as these platforms enable users to invest in various financial products using digital assets.
3. Initial Coin Offerings ( ICO ) have not been widely implemented on the Sui network, but the potential for launching new projects and issuing tokens through this method could attract more investment to the SUI ecosystem.
4. The blockchain industry is evolving rapidly, with Defi becoming increasingly important. SUI's integration with DeFi systems could help it become a key player in this arena, leading to increased adoption and potentially higher token prices.
5. As the market for cryptocurrencies continues to mature, investors may look to diversify their portfolios by investing in a range of assets, including SUI. This increased interest in alternative finance options could help drive the price of SUI upward over time.

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