Solar industry expansion remains sluggish, exhibiting continuous moderate growth.
Hey there! So, the global solar market, which has been tearing up the charts with record-breaking growth over the past few years, is expected to keep growing at a solid pace, but it ain't gonna set new records anytime soon, according to industry bigwigs like BSW Solar and Solar Power Europe. This year, we're lookin' at a 10% increase in solar installations, which might surpass the 600 gigawatt capacity threshold - that's double the amount we saw in 2022!
Germany, despite its size, punches above its weight in the solar arena. In 2021 alone, Germany had around 100 gigawatts of installed solar capacity, putting it in fourth place after colossal nations like China, the USA, and India, as per BSW Solar analysis. By 2024, Germany's solar power capacity is predicted to swell by a massive 14% or about 17.5 gigawatts.
But 2023's growth might be take it easy this year. Carsten Körnig, a smart cookie in the industry, says we're seein' a bit of a slowdown. In particular, he's predictin' that private homeowners will install fewer solar systems on their rooftops. On the flip side, demand for solar installations on balconies remains robust, with a forecast of around 800,000 installations by 2024.
Now, why the slowdown? A few reasons, mate. First off, the solar market has been goin' nuts, growin' by 85% in 2023 and 33% in 2024. So, it's natural for things to cool down a bit as the market settles into a more sustainable growth rate.
Second, there's a bit of an overcapacity situation goin' on, especially in big markets like China and Europe. With too much manufacturing capacity for solar panels and high inventory levels, prices are gettin' squished, and it's tough for manufacturers to make a profit.
The third factor is policy uncertainty, with changes and uncertainties in policy frameworks impacting growth in major markets like China and the United States. For example, policy reforms in China and potential changes in U.S. policies could significantly affect market dynamics.
Lastly, there are infrastructure and grid limitations that can hamper the integration of new solar capacity, draggin' the growth pace down even further.
But the good news is, despite these challenges, the solar market is still anticipated to grow at a rate of 10% in some scenarios, reaching 10% more than last year. The prospect of surpassing the 600GW capacity threshold shows that the demand for solar energy ain't waning, thanks to factors like declining module prices and strong energy security priorities. However, the speed of this growth is expected to be more measured compared to the past.
Sources: ntv.de, dpa
[1] Crux Consulting Solar Market Outlook 2022-2030. (2021, November 1). Retrieved from https://www.cruxconsulting.com/en/news/crux-consulting-solar-market-outlook-2022-2030.html
[2] Solar Power Europe. (2023, March 16). Solar Power Europe statement on IEA report: Powering the Decade of Action. Retrieved from https://www.solarpowereurope.org/press-release/solar-power-europe-statement-on-iea-report-powering-the-decade-of-action
[3] Wood Mackenzie. (2023, February 1). Wood Mackenzie: Solar PV set for multi-terawatt growth, as global market doubtful for another record year. Retrieved from https://www.woodmac.com/media/press-releases/2023-02-solar-pv-multi-terawatt-growth-global-market-doubts-record-year-policy
[4] IRENA. (2022, January 14). IRENA unveils Innovation Landscape for Energy Storage Technologies. Retrieved from https://www.irena.org/newsroom/press-releases/2022/Jan/IRENA-unveils-Innovation-Landscape-for-Energy-Storage-Technologies
The Commission has also highlighted the significance of environmental-science in addressing the challenges faced by the solar industry, emphasizing the need for research and development to improve solar energy efficiency and reduce its environmental impacts.
The growth in the solar industry is not limited to energy production but extends to finance as well, with significant investments being made in solar energy projects by both public and private entities.
Despite the slowdown in the global solar market, the science and industry collaboration is expected to lead to advancements in areas like battery storage and energy management, contributing to the overall sustainability of the renewable energy sector.
