Rising Oil Prices Forecasted
In early August 2025, the price of Brent crude oil futures is hovering around $68-69 per barrel, with forecasts for the year averaging between $64 and $73. This price level is influenced by several key factors, including OPEC+ production increases, US tariff uncertainties, global economic growth concerns, and non-OPEC supply growth.
The OPEC+ production strategy involves gradual monthly production increases from April 2025 through late 2026. Analysts expect these increases to create supply pressure that could lower prices if implemented fully. However, any delays in production hikes could support prices. OPEC+ is also seeking to regain market share with output boosts around 547,000 barrels per day starting September 2025.
US tariff policies and trade tensions are another significant factor impacting crude oil prices. Ongoing uncertainties about US tariffs and trade disputes create downside risks by potentially slowing global economic growth and oil demand. Analysts note the tariff risk limits demand growth forecasts and causes market caution.
Non-OPEC production is expected to rise by about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025, mainly via conventional projects less sensitive to price changes, which adds further supply pressure.
The global GDP is projected around 2.8% in 2025 but could be revised downward due to trade tensions and weaker US economic data showing growth slowing to 0.9% in Q2 2025. This dampens oil demand forecasts; Goldman Sachs projects demand growth of about 800,000 barrels per day, but with recession risks rising.
Geopolitical risks, such as supply disruptions from conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East) and sanctions on Russia and Iran, could provide some upward price support despite supply growth elsewhere.
Regarding MCX crude oil (Indian market), while there is no direct pricing forecast, MCX crude oil prices correlate strongly with Brent crude futures, adjusted for regional factors like Indian demand, refining margins, and exchange rates. Given global trends, MCX crude oil prices in 2025 are expected to follow a similar downward or sideways pattern due to the same supply and demand dynamics affecting Brent crude.
Trade strategies for Brent crude and MCX crude oil suggest caution, risk management, and responsiveness to OPEC+ updates and economic data. For Brent crude, a short to neutral positioning or selling on rallies may be prudent due to anticipated supply increases and tariff risks weighing on prices. Watch for production decision announcements from OPEC+ for short-term volatility. Consider hedging against downside risk if holding long positions, given recession threat and demand uncertainties.
For MCX crude oil, align trades with Brent crude trends but monitor India-specific demand and policy developments. Use technical analysis for entry/exit points given the expected sideways to slightly bearish global price pressure. Employ stop-loss orders to manage risk amid geopolitical and tariff uncertainties.
In summary, Brent crude oil futures and MCX crude oil prices as of August 2025 are under pressure from planned OPEC+ production increases, US tariff and trade policy uncertainty, slower global growth prospects, and rising non-OPEC supply, with price forecasts ranging from mid-$60s to low $70s per barrel on average through 2025. Traders should stay vigilant and adapt to the evolving market conditions.
Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4
- The OPEC+ production strategy, involving gradual monthly production increases, could create supply pressure that lowers prices, but delays in production hikes could support prices.
- The US tariff policies and trade tensions are another significant factor that could slow global economic growth and oil demand, limiting demand growth forecasts and causing market caution.
- Non-OPEC production is expected to rise significantly, adding further supply pressure, which should be factored into subscription-based industry analysis regarding the oil-and-gas sector and finance.
- The business strategy for traders should include staying informed about the IT industry's economic data and OPEC+ updates, as they are influential in deciding positioning for Brent crude and MCX crude oil, with MCX crude oil prices following a similar pattern due to the same supply and demand dynamics.
