Rapid Increase in Credit Expansion Expected to Outpace Government's Set Goal
The Vietnamese banking sector is experiencing a surge in credit growth, with the main drivers being joint stock commercial banks, particularly those specialising in business lending. Notable institutions like VPBank, HDBank, NamABank, MSB, SHB, and MB are leading this growth.
According to S&I Ratings, credit growth in the banking system increased by 9.9% in the first half of the year, marking the highest level since 2012. By the end of August 2025, outstanding loans across the banking system had risen by 11.8% since the end of 2024. The Government's credit growth target for 2025 is set at 16%, and it seems many banks are on track to meet this target despite challenges posed by declining net interest margins.
One bank predicted to reach 15% credit growth is Vietcombank, thanks to accelerated public investment disbursement, low lending interest rates, ambitious GDP growth targets, and the continued recovery of the real estate market.
Among the large joint stock commercial banks in Vietnam, Techcombank is expected to have strong credit growth in 2025. Analysts from Mirae Asset note that Techcombank remains an outperformer with balanced credit expansion, although specific numeric growth rates for 2025 are not detailed in the sources.
Outstanding loans at SHB, Techcombank, and MB were VNĐ41 trillion, VNĐ40 trillion, and VNĐ21 trillion respectively to real estate investors in the first half of 2025. This surge in lending to the real estate sector is also reflected in the growth rates of VPBank, HDBank, NamABank, MSB, SHB, and MB, which were 18.7%, 15.3%, 14.7%, 13.5%, 12.9%, and 12.3% respectively in the first half of 2025.
The State Bank of Vietnam boosted lending capacity on July 31, 2025, by extending credit limits for banks that had already used more than 80% of their initial quotas. This extension of credit limits opened the door for further credit growth in the final months of the year.
Analysts predict that the economy's recovery will keep capital demand strong, potentially leading to credit growth of 17-18% in 2025. MBS analysts predict that banks focusing on lending to public investment and small- and medium-sized enterprises will continue to make a breakthrough in credit growth for the rest of the year.
MB Securities Joint Stock Company analysts have a positive outlook for credit growth in their year-end credit growth report. They believe HDBank can achieve its ambitious credit growth target of 32% in 2025, while banks like VPBank, NamABank, MSB, SHB, and MB are expected to see outstanding growth rates of 25-30% in 2025.
In conclusion, the high credit growth in Vietnam's banking sector is a positive sign for the country's economic recovery. With the government's support and the robust performance of key institutions, it appears that the sector is well-positioned to continue this growth trend in the coming months.
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