Sounding the Alarm: US-China Trade War Could Jeopardize Thousands of German Jobs
Potential job losses in Germany due to escalating US-China trade tensions
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A blazing trade war between the US and China could spell dire consequences for Germany, as suggested in a recent study. If no resolution is found in the tariff clash, Chinese exporters may start gravitating towards European markets, and particularly Germany, according to an analysis by Allianz Trade, a credit insurer.
As Jasmin Groeschl, economist at Allianz Trade, puts it, "We predict that 17,000 to 25,000 industrial jobs in Germany could vanish due to the looming diversion of Chinese goods and the intensified competition." Industries like mechanical engineering, textiles, non-metallic mineral products, electronics, computers, and motor vehicles are set to take the brunt of the storm.
These industries may lose anywhere from 13,000 to 19,000 jobs in the machinery and equipment sector, 1,200 to 1,800 jobs in the non-metallic mineral products sector, and around 2,200 to 3,300 jobs in the textile industry. The impact isn't limited to these sectors, as the broader economy could also be affected, with many companies reportedly considering job cuts as gloom grips the German economy[3].
The regions of Upper Franconia, Tübingen, and the Freiburg region, among others, are anticipated to suffer from these losses, notably in manufacturing industries. The potential layoffs could account for roughly 0.2% to 0.3% of the total employment in German industry, which stands at approximately eight million people[4].
Sources: ntv.de, rts
Enrichment data:
- The research report by Allianz Trade highlights the vulnerability of several German industries in the event of the US-China trade war.
- Mechanical engineering, textiles, non-metallic mineral products, electronics, computers, and motor vehicles are identified as industries most at risk due to heightened competition from Chinese exporters gravitating towards the European market.
- This competition could lead to job losses varying between 17,000 and 25,000 across these industries.
- The US-China trade war's potential impact on employment in Germany is alarming, with the finance sector likely to be affected due to the economic downturn caused by job cuts in vulnerable industries like mechanical engineering, textiles, non-metallic mineral products, electronics, computers, and motor vehicles.
- Given the risk of intensified competition from Chinese exporters gravitating towards European markets, particularly Germany, policies such as community policy and employment policy should be reviewed and adjusted to support affected businesses and mitigate job losses in the regions of Upper Franconia, Tübingen, and the Freiburg region.
