Oil Prices Close Slightly Down Following Mixed Energy Information Administration Stockpile Data
In a recent analysis, experts predict a volatile but generally downward-to-stabilising trend for crude oil prices in 2025 and beyond. The expected price ranges for both WTI and Brent crude oil are primarily between $55 and $75 per barrel, subject to variations due to benchmark and time frame.
As of mid-2025, WTI crude oil prices are trading near the lower channel boundary around $60–$61. Technical indicators suggest a potential short-term upward correction but overall pressure to remain in a descending channel through 2025. Monthly forecasted price ranges for WTI during mid-to-late 2025 fluctuate roughly between $54.80 and $64.00 per barrel, with some modest recovery expected into early 2026.
On the other hand, Brent crude oil prices are projected to stay within the $60–$85 range in 2025, with the possibility of falling to the low $60s in 2026. Goldman Sachs anticipates averages around $76 in 2025 but expects declines due to persistent supply surpluses. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent averaging about $69 in 2025, revised slightly up due to Middle East conflicts increasing near-term uncertainty and prices, but dropping to $58 in 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand.
Supply factors play a significant role in these projections. The EIA projects U.S. crude production will slightly decline from a record 13.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in Q2 2025 to 13.3 mbd by the end of 2026, due to lower prices causing producers to slow drilling activity. Global non-OPEC production growth and cautious OPEC+ output adjustments contribute to supply surpluses, which apply downward pressure on prices.
Geopolitical tensions, such as unrest in the Middle East, have recently increased uncertainty and supported a modest upward revision of short-term price forecasts. However, these factors are not expected to prevent an overall easing of prices given the economic fundamentals.
In other developments, the global crude oil market is projected to face a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption. Meanwhile, US crude oil production in the week ending July 18 fell 0.8% week-on-week to 13.273 million bpd. The Iraqi government approved a plan for the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to resume oil exports, which could add 230,000 bpd of crude to Iraq's market.
OPEC+ may be concerned about a slowdown in global oil demand in the second half of this year. However, the US and Japan agreed on a trade agreement, easing trade concerns and potentially increasing energy demand. The number of active US oil rigs decreased by 2 rigs to a new 3.75-year low of 422 rigs.
In the latest reports, crude oil supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose by +455,000 bbl, while EIA distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose by +2.9 million bbl. Losses in crude were contained, and gasoline prices rose after weekly EIA crude inventories and gasoline supplies fell more than expected. September RBOB gasoline (RBU25) closed up +0.0187 (+0.90%) on Wednesday, while September WTI crude oil (CLU25) closed down -0.06 (-0.09%) on the same day.
The European Union has approved fresh sanctions on Russian oil due to its aggression against Ukraine, including cutting off 20 more Russian banks from the international payments system SWIFT and restrictions imposed on Russian petroleum refined in other countries. The International Energy Agency stated that inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd. Crude oil and gasoline prices settled mixed on Wednesday.
In summary, while crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile with moderate short-term upward corrections, the prevailing trend points to prices stabilising or declining within the mid-$50s to mid-$60s per barrel by late 2025 and into 2026, primarily due to supply outpacing growth in demand and U.S. production tapering modestly, while geopolitical tensions add intermittent price volatility.
Despite the potential short-term upward corrections, the industry forecast for WTI crude oil prices suggests a general downward trend that may stabilize within the mid-$50s to mid-$60s per barrel by the end of 2025. On the flip side, finance analysts predict Brent crude oil prices to stay within the range of $60 to $85 throughout 2025, with some possible drops to the low $60s in 2026.
