Measuring Potential Impacts: Google's Quantum Advancement as a Threat to Bitcoin's Dominance
Major advancements in quantum computing often cause a collective dagger of anticipation among the crypto sphere. Google's latest declaration introducing its quantum processor named Willow is no exception. Willow boasts double the qubits compared to previous quantum machines, and Google has successfully minimized the instability that typically arises from increasing qubits.
Effectively, this means Willow possesses increased computational capacity in relation to the extra qubits compared to other quantum machines. Simply put, it takes Willow around five minutes to complete a task that would require a standard supercomputer an astronomical 10^24 x 10^24 years to accomplish.
This remarkable increase in computing power sparks queries regarding Bitcoin's vitally uncracked security, which has remained solid for 15 years, since the genesis block. Bitcoin is secured with cryptography, such as the SHA-256 algorithm, robust enough to fend off any brute-force attack originating from traditional computers. However, should we present the same task to increasingly powerful quantum machines, the probability of a successful attack inching towards feasibility becomes imminent.
Crypto's tangled dilemma
The SHA-256 algorithm is also utilised to secure digital information, including passwords and digital signatures. As Zack Gall, CCO at the EOS Network Foundation, underlines, the challenge isn't confined only to Bitcoin:
"If Willow, or any quantum computer, were capable of decoding Bitcoin's cryptographic safeguards, it wouldn't merely destabilize the digital currency ecosystem; it would foreshadow the collapse of virtually all contemporary security systems. Our entire digital infrastructure, upon which we rely, would demand an urgent and fundamental overhaul to adjust to this new paradigm of computational power."
However, a significant factor in this scenario is the decentralized nature of public blockchains. Centralized systems can roll out upgrades or patches, but modifications for Bitcoin or Ethereum are not as straightforward. At best, improvements are tedious and challenging to implement through network governance; at worst, they can foster division and hard forks.
There may also necessitate Bitcoin holders to move funds from aging wallets to newer, quantum-resistant alternatives. Coordinating a mass upgrade, even if feasible, would consume such a vast extent of block space that dedicating months to nothing but updates would be required. Veteran Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp emphasised this during his speech at this year's Future of Bitcoin event titled "Safeguarding Satoshi's Stash".
Plan, prepare, but don't quiver
So, is Google's announcement a cause for panic? Perhaps not immediately. Experts estimate that a quantum machine would require a full two-four hours to decipher a Bitcoin key from the SHA-256 hash with a machine equipped with 13 million qubits – a far cry from Willow's impressive 105 qubits. Additionally, it's important to consider that Bitcoin transactions only reveal the public key for a brief period, implying that an attack remains impracticable at this stage.
Nonetheless, the crypto community appears united in its belief that the need to prepare is crucial. Shady El Damaty, co-founder of identity protocol Holonym, declared:
"When [the quantum threat] materializes, if it materializes, it will be imperative for governments, companies, blockchains, and even individuals to be prepared. Post-quantum migration strategies are the means to prepare. Safeguarding sensitive data from future risks should be everybody's priority."
Two comforting facts reassure Bitcoin holders. Firstly, the community is profoundly aware of the quantum threat, and secondly, while concrete contingency plans may not yet be in place for each public blockchain, preparations for quantum-resistant cryptography are well underway. Solutions already exist, and segments of the Ethereum developer community are actively researching alternatives.
Similarly, the founder of Ava Labs, which develops the Avalanche blockchain, has revealed their intention to integrate lattice cryptography, specifically designed to be quantum-resistant. Given institutional involvement in Bitcoin today, it's fair to assume that Bitcoin-focused solutions will receive ample funding.
Statements such as Google's, which suggest a quantum technology breakthrough, inevitably instill fear due to their apparent existential threat to traditional cryptography, and, by extension, to crypto. Nevertheless, the flip side is that the progress of quantum development is spurring the crypto community into developing solutions and planning for potential catastrophes. As such, there's ample time left before the threat becomes a reality, giving us every chance to avert the worst-case scenario.
Despite Google's advancements in quantum computing with their Willow processor, currently, a quantum machine would require 13 million qubits to decipher a Bitcoin key in two to four hours, significantly more than Willow's 105 qubits.
In light of potential quantum threats to Bitcoin security, Shady El Damaty highlights the importance of having post-quantum migration strategies and safeguarding sensitive data as a priority for individuals, companies, and governments alike.