Market Consumption Rates
In the ever-evolving landscape of the Russian banking sector, Sberbank continues to hold a commanding position in the cash loans market. This dominance is primarily due to the bank's large and diversified customer base, broad geographic coverage, operational efficiency, and strong position across various loan types, according to an article authored by Elena Vanushina and Ksenia Demenтьeva.
Sberbank issued 175 billion rubles in consumer loans (excluding card loans) in July 2025, representing 50.8% of the total cash loan issuance volume. This impressive figure underscores the bank's significant market penetration, serving over 110 million individual customers and 3.5 million corporate clients.
The high interest rates environment previously restrained growth in consumer lending, but Sberbank’s loan portfolio still grew, primarily through preferential mortgage loans and project financing. However, with the Central Bank easing consumer lending restrictions by cutting the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18%, this reduction is expected to stimulate consumer lending demand.
The rate cut will likely lower borrowing costs, boosting loan origination volumes. Sberbank, with its dominant market position and efficient capital deployment (ROE above 20%), stands to increase its market share further as consumer credit expands.
However, the easing of restrictions and lower interest rates will intensify competition among banks for consumer lending. Despite this, Sberbank’s scale, strong brand, extensive customer base, and operational resilience amid sanctions provide it with a competitive edge. Smaller banks may struggle to match Sberbank’s reach and efficiency, consolidating Sberbank’s leadership but also prompting some competitive pressure in consumer lending growth areas.
One factor that could potentially challenge Sberbank's dominance is the increase in overdue debt. Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department of IC "Ricom-Trust," notes that Sberbank's overdue debt has increased, with its share rising to 2.7%. This trend may force the bank to tighten its credit policy.
Pavel Samiev, the general director of the analytical agency "Businessdrom," suggests a regulatory factor could be responsible for the increase in Sberbank's cash loan issuance. The Central Bank reduced macroprudential add-ons for new unsecured consumer loans from September 1, affecting all PSS and PDN ranges except for the most risky segment with PSS above 60% per annum.
Experts expect Sberbank to maintain its leadership in the cash loans segment, despite intensifying competition with other banks as the Central Bank eases restrictions on consumer lending. Other banks, such as those led by Ilya Zharsky, managing partner of the expert group Veta, may try to maintain or increase their market share through aggressive marketing campaigns.
In a relatively stable macroeconomic environment, Sberbank's share will continue to grow if its competitive advantages in services and technologies are maintained, according to Oleg Abilev. However, a decrease in Sberbank's share is possible if competitors become more active or the Central Bank introduces new restrictions.
As of July 1, 2025, Sberbank had the highest capital adequacy ratio (N1.0) among all systemically important credit organizations (SZKO), at 14.07. The bank's return on equity is above 22%, and its profit for seven months is almost 1 trillion rubles.
In conclusion, Sberbank's dominance in the cash loans segment in Russia is set to continue, despite the intensifying competition and regulatory changes. The bank's large customer base, broad geographic coverage, operational efficiency, capital strength, and diversified lending portfolio focused on mortgages and corporate financing will likely maintain its dominant position. However, the increasing overdue debt may force the bank to tighten its credit policy, and the easing of restrictions will intensify competition among banks.
Sberbank's capital strength and diversified lending portfolio, including mortgage and corporate financing, are poised to bolster its market dominance in the cash loans segment, as depicted by its issuance of 175 billion rubles in July 2025. With the easing of consumer lending restrictions by the Central Bank and a large customer base, the bank is anticipated to further increase its market share and loan origination volumes.
However, the increasing overdue debt and fluctuating macroeconomic conditions may challenge Sberbank's dominance, necessitating potential adjustments to the credit policy or competitive pressures from other banks, such as those focusing on aggressive marketing strategies.
