Livestock Crash Happens on Friday, as Number of Livestock Feeders Dwindles
The current outlook for live and feeder cattle futures prices shows recent strong gains with some volatility influenced by supply constraints, demand dynamics, and market uncertainty.
Live cattle futures gained about $2.90 to $3.90 across most contracts by August 15, 2025, with the August contract up approximately $3.70 for the week. Cash trade prices were mostly steady, with dressed trade around $384-$386 and live trade at roughly $243-$245 per head in the North, and lower prices near $235 in the South.
Feeder cattle futures rallied strongly, with contracts gaining $5.45 to $6.32, and August feeder cattle futures up $6.75 for the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index, however, was down slightly ($0.26) to $345.75 on August 14.
Despite these gains, market participation is cautious; Commitment of Traders data shows speculators trimming net long positions (live cattle down by 752 contracts and feeder cattle down by 3,542 contracts), indicating caution among managed money.
Factors influencing prices include reduced slaughter volumes leading to tighter beef supplies and higher boxed beef prices, weather impacts, import disruptions, strong demand, and USDA forecasts, as well as feed costs and corn yield revisions.
Volatile futures with recent rallies reflect anticipation of tight supply and strong demand dynamics. There is a cautious optimism among producers and traders, but also attention to risk management given erratic price swings and supply uncertainties.
As of August 25, the price of August live cattle stands at $227.925, a decrease of $5.700. August feeder cattle is priced at $339.400, a decrease of $9.250. September feeder cattle is priced at $340.375, a decrease of $9.250, and October feeder cattle is priced at $339.225, a decrease of $9.250.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up another 24 cents to $337.21 on August 7. As of August 25, no new information about deliveries, managed money net long positions, or CFTC data was provided.
USDA estimated cattle slaughter for this week was 536,000 head, which is 51,582 head lower than the same week in 2024. The market outlook remains volatile, with producers and traders advised to monitor weather and trade developments closely and consider risk management strategies given the market's volatility.
Sources: 1. Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Futures Prices 2. CFTC Commitment of Traders Report 3. USDA Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Market News 4. Weather Impacts on Cattle Markets 5. USDA Cattle and Beef Outlook
- The recent gains in live cattle futures prices, with an increase of about $3.70 for the August contract, suggest a positive outlook in the finance sector for live cattle producers.
- In the feeder cattle market, futures prices surged by $6.75 for the August contract, but the CME Feeder Cattle Index saw a slight decrease, indicating a complex financial situation for feeder cattle traders.
