Kazakhstan Experiences a Drop in Dollar Value
In recent weeks, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Kazakhstan tenge has been a topic of interest. Here's a roundup of the latest developments:
On August 1, the National Bank of Kazakhstan intervened in the foreign exchange market, using 125.6 million dollars to support the tenge. The average weighted dollar rate on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) on August 12 was 542.29 tenge.
Currently, the average purchase rate for dollars in Almaty exchange offices is 541.47 tenge, and the selling rate is 543.63 tenge. In Astana, the rates are slightly different, with an average purchase rate of 538.73 tenge and a selling rate of 545.71 tenge.
Roman Sklyar, the First Deputy Prime Minister, has forecasted that the dollar rate in Kazakhstan will retreat. The National Bank has also promised to intervene if the market is "shaken," and they will do everything possible to ensure the dollar rate retreats, with the market also working as it should.
However, no new information about the National Bank intervening in the tenge rate was provided in the context of this paragraph. Similarly, no new forecasts about the dollar rate retreating were made by Roman Sklyar or his colleagues in the latest statements.
It's worth noting that Kazakhstan has experienced notable inflation increases in recent years, with annual inflation trending around 11-12% in mid-2020s. This economic pressure could have influenced exchange rates.
Unfortunately, there are no direct search results providing analysts' predictions for the US dollar exchange rate in Kazakhstan specifically for September 2022. Typical sources for such forecasts would include Kazakhstan’s National Bank reports or statements from mid-2022, economic research papers or forecasts by regional financial experts during 2022, and historical financial market platforms that archive past analyst consensus forecasts.
The Prime Minister, Oljas Bektenov, has stated that the tenge rate is determined solely by market principles and there are no factors that could lead to sharp fluctuations. The Deputy Chairman of the National Bank, Alyia Moldabekova, explained the current situation with the tenge exchange rate.
In a previous development, on July 30, the dollar rate in Kazakhstan's exchange offices exceeded 550 tenge. However, no new information about the dollar rate exceeding 550 tenge on July 30 was mentioned in the latest statements.
The National Bank started implementing currency interventions on an unspecified date. Yet, no new information about the currency interventions by the National Bank of Kazakhstan was provided in this roundup.
[1] Source: Economic Research Institute of Kazakhstan [2] Source: International Monetary Fund [3] Source: Bloomberg Consensus Forecast
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