Investigating Bitcoin's Market Cycle: Could Autumn 2025 Signify the Next Pinnacle?
Analysis Indicates Bitcoin's Cycle Peak Likely in 2025, With Current Uptrend Persisting
Recent trading activity has highlighted both losses incurred by a prominent Bitcoin whale and elevated trading activity in the derivatives market. The whale, a significant player in the market, suffered losses on a long position and subsequent losses after reversing to a short position.
Amusing comments on social media platforms such as X (formerly Twitter) lampooned the whale's missteps, but markets were already experiencing increased pressure due to profit-taking activity. Bullish Bitcoin investors aimed to reach new highs, yet faced resistance from these profit-taking efforts.
Long-Term Holders Find Encouragement Despite Short-Term Challenges
In a report by Axel Adler Insights, crypto analyst Axel Adler noted that the advanced net UTXO Supply Ratio suggested that large players were securing partial profits. However, the Bitcoin peak signal did not indicate a cycle top.
Using the Market to Realized Price Ratio (MRPR) of long-term holders and the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) (30 DMA and 365 DMA) metric, Adler found that the indicator is useful in recognizing local peaks in 2014, 2017-18, and 2021. At present, the indicator points to a late bull stage in the Bitcoin market.
Despite the strengthening MRPR and VDD metrics, they have not yet reached historical extreme levels. This indicates that while large holders can realize partial profits, the medium-term targets remain bullish.
Long-Term Predictions and Market Cycle Behavior
Based on the Bitcoin halving cycle model, the cycle top might occur in the fall of 2025. This assessment is supported by "hot" market signals, which are generated when small-fractal crosses medium-fractal from above while in the positive zone.
On CryptoQuant Insights, user Onchain Edge observed that a combination of two factors suggests a likely bullish continuation. The first factor is the steadily negative exchange netflow, which supports the idea of BTC accumulation. The second factor is the falling Taker Buy Sell Ratio, indicating increased market sell pressure, with more aggressive sellers emerging in recent days.
Bitcoin may continue to trend upward in the coming weeks as retail investors accumulate and take profits, while large inflows to exchanges remain minimal, signifying a lack of panic selling.
While the market shows indications of a cyclical peak in 2025, Bitcoin's overall trajectory remains bullish, with experts predicting prices could cross the $100,000 mark and potentially reach between $150,000 and $200,000 by year-end, driven by institutional adoption, supply constraints, and solid on-chain fundamentals. Even though some indicators point to potential nearing of a top, many suggest a "supercycle" or an extended bull run, akin to the 2017 cycle with multiple peaks and consolidations prior to the final parabolic rally.
- Despite the possible Bitcoin peak in 2025 according to the bitcoin halving cycle model, experts predict prices could still cross the $100,000 mark and potentially reach between $150,000 and $200,000 by year-end, driven by institutional adoption, supply constraints, and solid on-chain fundamentals.
- The Market to Realized Price Ratio (MRPR) of long-term holders and the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) (365 DMA) metric indicate a late bull stage in the Bitcoin market, but they have not yet reached historical extreme levels, meaning that while large holders can realize partial profits, the medium-term targets remain bullish.
- Using the Bitcoin peak signal and the advanced net UTXO Supply Ratio, crypto analyst Axel Adler noted that large players were securing partial profits; however, the Bitcoin peak signal did not indicate a cycle top, suggesting that the current uptrend in bitcoin might persist beyond 2025.
