Higher U.S. tariffs on EU imports: Impact on Italy, Spain, Greece, and Ireland explained
In the current economic climate, the potential impact of proposed 30% tariffs on European imports to the U.S., as threatened by President Trump, is a topic of significant concern for Italian businesses and policymakers.
If the tariffs were to be imposed, many Italian companies would find selling in the U.S. 23% more expensive compared to 2023, resulting in an estimated €20 billion loss in total exports to the U.S., according to Fontana. However, the direct impact on Italian exports would be substantial but less severe than the nominal tariff rate suggests, due to partial absorption of costs by U.S. importers and consumers. An economist from Bocconi University estimates a profit margin loss of about €1.7 billion on $75 billion of Italian exports to the U.S. in 2025. The hardest-hit sectors would be steel and aluminium, though these represent a smaller share of exports.
The broader impact on Italian GDP is a cause for concern. The existing 15% tariff agreement with the U.S. is estimated to reduce the EU's GDP by about 0.5%, indicating that a higher 30% tariff could worsen economic growth prospects by increasing uncertainty and dampening exports. J.P. Morgan economists anticipate that current tariffs have already led to a slowdown in Eurozone economic activity, forecasting GDP growth moderation to about 0.5% annualized in Q3 and 0.75% in Q4 2025.
The regions most affected by U.S. tariffs would be those with the highest manufacturing value added: Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Tuscany. Italy could potentially lose up to €38 billion in exports to the U.S., according to Alessandro Fontana, director of Confindustria's Research Center.
The depreciation of the dollar against the euro (-13% since the start of Trump's second term) has made European exports more expensive in the U.S. market. Among EU countries, Italy has average tariffs of 8%, compared to 11% for Germany and 6.4% for France.
It's important to note that these figures are estimates and a full, detailed direct estimate of Italian GDP loss from a full 30% tariff scenario is not explicitly quantified in the sources. However, the available data suggest significant negative effects on both exports and economic growth if such tariffs were implemented.
In 2024, Italian merchandise exports stood at €623.5 billion (-0.4%), mainly due to a sharp drop in sales to Germany (-5%). Despite this decline, Italian merchandise exports remain at +30% compared to 2019 (€480 billion).
The sectors most exposed to these tariffs would be those primarily involved in manufacturing goods, with the mechanical industry being particularly vulnerable. These businesses, mainly from the sectors of beverages, metal products, pharmaceuticals, furniture, retail trade, transport equipment other than motor vehicles, export over €11 billion to the U.S.
Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti emphasized the need for a reasonable compromise on tariffs. Negotiations between the U.S. and EU are intense, with the EU committed to reducing trade barriers.
The increase in Italy's trade surplus is primarily due to a significant reduction in the deficit in extracted industry products, whose imports have seen a sharp drop in prices and quantities. The latest ICE report indicates that Italy's trade surplus has significantly increased, rising from €34 billion to €55 billion in 2024.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 30% tariffs on European imports starting in August. The increase in tariffs has resulted in a cumulative loss of up to 21% for Italian exporters compared to the pre-Trump period.
In conclusion, the potential impact of proposed 30% tariffs on Italian exports to the U.S. could be substantial, with estimated profit margin losses for Italian exporters and potential GDP growth moderation. The sectors most affected would be those with the highest manufacturing value added, and the regions most affected would be Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Tuscany. A full, detailed direct estimate of Italian GDP loss from a full 30% tariff scenario is not explicitly quantified, but the available data suggest significant negative effects on both exports and economic growth if such tariffs were implemented.
Other sectors beyond manufacturing goods could also experience profit margin losses due to reduced exports to the U.S., potentially affecting general-news and business narratives. Moreover, the impact of these tariffs might extend beyond Italian GDP, influencing finance and politics, as increased uncertainty and economic volatility could disrupt global trade dynamics.
