Geothermal Power Market Expansion Expected to Top USD 11.4 Billion by 2034
The geothermal power market is on an upward trajectory, with significant growth projected in the coming years. According to various reports, the market size is expected to range from around USD 9.81 billion in 2024 to between USD 11.11 billion by 2034 and USD 13.56 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 3.5% to 5.3%.
This growth is driven by increased deployment for power generation, government support, rising heating and cooling demand, and technology improvements like binary cycle plants enabling access to lower temperature resources.
Regional Leadership and Development
Asia Pacific is the current largest and fastest-growing regional geothermal market. Countries like Indonesia strongly leverage geothermal for power generation, while China leads in geothermal heat pump applications primarily for district and space heating. Asia Pacific's growth is fueled by abundant resources, government policies targeting net-zero emissions, and significant investments from public and private sectors.
Europe and North America also hold significant shares, with favorable policies and residential heating demand contributing to their geothermal market size, although they grow at a somewhat slower pace compared to Asia Pacific.
Long-term Outlook and Capacity
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Department of Energy projections, geothermal power generation could more than double by 2050, increasing from about 16.5 billion kWh currently to 37.2 billion kWh. The U.S. aims for a twenty-fold capacity increase to 90 GW by 2050 through advanced technologies unlocking more geothermal resources.
Geothermal's baseload, stable output complements intermittent renewables like wind and solar, reducing grid costs and enhancing renewable integration as global electricity demand and decarbonization efforts grow.
Partnerships and Projects
Notable developments include ABB's partnership with Sage Geosystems to develop next-generation geopressured geothermal systems, aiming to provide clean, 24/7 baseload power and energy storage capabilities for Meta's data centers. Calpine is expanding its geothermal operations at The Geysers in California with the "North Geysers Incremental Development" (NGID) program, aiming to add 25 MW of reliable capacity.
Job Creation and Local Impact
The construction of geothermal plants can generate approximately 26 jobs per MW and foster long-term local employment. California's Geysers field, the world's largest operational geothermal facility with an installed capacity of 1,590 MW, is a testament to the potential for job creation in this sector.
Market Shares and Trends
In 2024, the Industrial sector held the largest share in the geothermal power market at 65.9%. Flash Steam Power Stations led the geothermal power market by power station type with a 59.4% share. High Temperature (Above 150°C) resources accounted for 74.5% of the geothermal power market.
The Asia-Pacific region is showing strong developments in geothermal power, with strong contributions from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. North America led the global geothermal power market in 2024 with a 48.6% share and a value of USD 3.7 billion.
In summary, the geothermal power market is experiencing steady growth globally, with Asia Pacific as the leader in development, supported by increasing technological advances and policy incentives that project a doubling or more of generation capacity and market size by mid-century. The sector offers continuous power output, filling gaps left by intermittent renewables and providing grid stability. Further innovations in geothermal energy, such as enhanced geothermal systems targeting deep reservoirs, promise to unlock vast new potential.
The renewable-energy sector, specifically the geothermal industry, attracts significant financial investments due to its projected growth. The growth is attributed to various factors, including robust regional leadership in Asia Pacific and technological improvements like binary cycle plants.
Significant market shares are held by the Industrial sector and Flash Steam Power Stations, and Asia Pacific region continues to demonstrate strong developments in geothermal power, positioning it as a key player in the renewable-energy landscape.
