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Futures market experts' opinions on gold prices in the volatile market

Significant discord exists amongst big and small speculative traders, as per recent findings by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in their Commitments of Traders report, indicative of a prevalent uncertainty in the market.

Futures Market Experts' Opinion on Gold Prices Swings Like a Roller Coaster
Futures Market Experts' Opinion on Gold Prices Swings Like a Roller Coaster

Futures market experts' opinions on gold prices in the volatile market

In the first quarter of 2025, a significant surge in institutional investment in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was observed, with major U.S. investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley collectively adding over $1.3 billion in GLD shares [1].

Goldman Sachs increased its holdings by about 1.7 million shares (+140.6%), BlackRock by 1.5 million shares (+76.9%), and Morgan Stanley by 1.4 million shares (+13.1%) [1]. This trend reflects a growing confidence in gold as a safe haven asset amid volatile markets.

However, DRW Securities, a trading firm that primarily risks its own capital and engages in trading investments across various asset classes, was not initially mentioned in the available data as a recent purchaser [1]. That was until a recent purchase of over 1.1 million SPDR Gold Shares, amounting to $141 million, making DRW Securities the 15th largest shareholder in GLD [2].

This entry by DRW Securities into the SPDR Gold Shares market indicates an increased institutional interest in gold investments [2]. It is worth noting that prior to this purchase, DRW Securities held no SPDR Gold Shares [2].

Mixed activity among institutions was evident during this period, with some banks like Toronto Dominion Bank and Proficio Capital Partners reducing their GLD holdings, indicating divergent views on gold exposure [1].

SPDR Gold Shares continues to be the largest gold ETF, holding approximately $102 billion in assets fully backed by physical gold, making it a primary vehicle for institutional investors to gain gold exposure [3][4].

The general interest in gold futures saw a slight dip in the week ending May 21 [1]. If the gold price breaks below the 1,258 dollar average line, it could become quite interesting [5].

The net long position of large speculators dropped from 124,500 to 88,800 contracts (-28.7 percent) [6]. This decrease was mainly due to the poor sentiment of large speculators (non-commercials) [6]. On the other hand, small speculators (non-reportables) became significantly more optimistic, with the net long position increasing from 12,600 to 19,100 contracts (+51.6 percent) [6].

The next SEC update for SPDR Gold Shares shareholdings is scheduled for mid-August [7]. This update will likely provide further insights into the institutional interest in gold investments, including DRW Securities' continued involvement.

Sources: [1] CNBC [2] Business Insider [3] World Gold Council [4] SPDR Gold Shares Fact Sheet [5] Kitco News [6] Commitments of Traders Report [7] SPDR Gold Shares Investor Relations

The recent purchases by major U.S. investment banks and the entry of DRW Securities into the SPDR Gold Shares market underscore the increasing institutional demand for gold exposure. As the market continues to evolve, the upcoming SEC update will provide valuable insights into the ongoing trends in gold investments.

Institutional demand for gold exposure is on the rise, as evidenced by the recent purchases by major U.S. investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley, and the recent entry of DRW Securities into the SPDR Gold Shares market. This trend could signify a shift in investing strategies, with real-estate and other assets possibly being diverted towards gold financing. The upcoming SEC update will provide further insights into these ongoing trends.

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