Economic growth defended by Trump, presenting charts amid indications of job market struggles
In an unexpected move, former President Donald Trump called reporters to the Oval Office to present charts showcasing a robust U.S. economy, amidst a jobs report that raised concerns. The moment was an attempt to reset the narrative of the U.S. economy, with Trump standing next to senior visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, Stephen Moore, who was present to discuss the economy and elevate Trump's performance as president.
During the presentation, Moore sought to diminish the economic track record of former President Joe Biden. He claimed that reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics had overestimated the number of jobs created during the last two years of Biden's term by 1.5 million. However, Moore's claim about the income increase is difficult to independently verify due to its basis on unpublished Census Bureau data.
The July jobs report showed that just 73,000 jobs were added last month, while the May and June totals were revised downward by 258,000. Revisions are a standard component of jobs reports and tend to be larger during periods of economic disruption.
Trump has yet to offer statistical evidence backing his theory that the overestimation was intentional. Meanwhile, the economy added nearly 2 million jobs in 2024 and 2.6 million in 2023 during Biden's presidency.
Moore also claimed that the average median household income, adjusted for inflation and for the average family in America, is up $1,174 through the first five months of Trump's second term.
Inflation under Trump's presidency is showing signs of heating up due to tariffs, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 3% rise in consumer prices over the past 12 months for July. The economic impact of Trump's tariffs on imports has been largely negative for the U.S. economy, contributing to higher prices for consumers, increased costs for businesses, and job losses in specific states and sectors.
These tariffs have also generated significant economic uncertainty, which has dampened growth and hiring. The unpredictable nature of Trump's tariff announcements and changes has created an "economy of uncertainty" that affects small businesses and workers by delaying hiring, investment, and household decisions such as buying homes or having children.
A 2025 Pew Research poll shows 55% of Americans expect the tariffs to have mostly negative long-term effects on the country and their personal finances, with Democrats predominantly viewing the impact as negative and Republicans divided. While tariffs could raise significant tax revenue, the overall economic environment remains fragile, with trade tensions contributing to recession risks and volatility in equity markets.
Some states, exemplified by California, legally challenge the President's authority to impose tariffs unilaterally, citing harm to their economies. In California alone, tariffs have been linked to a loss of over 64,000 jobs and $11.3 billion in tariff costs within the first five months of 2025, particularly affecting trade and logistics sectors. The Port of Los Angeles was operating at only 70% capacity partly due to ongoing tariffs, with related job postings down 40%.
In summary, Trump's tariffs have increased costs for households and businesses, contributed to job losses in trade-related industries, and heightened economic uncertainty, which collectively have restrained U.S. job growth and economic performance in 2025.
References:
- Yale Budget Lab
- Los Angeles Times
- Pew Research
- Brookings Institution
- The discussion between former President Donald Trump and Stephen Moore in the Oval Office focused on housing, real estate, and business, with a particular emphasis on jobs and the economy.
- Moore, during the presentation, criticized the economic performance of President Joe Biden, citing underestimated job creation and overestimated income increase, claims that are subject to independent verification.
- The July jobs report showed a disappointing addition of 73,000 jobs, and the economy's overall performance under Biden is contrary to Moore's claims, with almost 2 million jobs added in 2024 and 2.6 million in 2023.
- On the other hand, Moore asserted that the average median household income increased by $1,174 through the first five months of Trump's second term, but inflation during Trump's presidency has been on the rise, particularly due to tariffs.
- Tariffs imposed by Trump have been associated with higher consumer prices, increased costs for businesses, job losses in specific sectors, and an "economy of uncertainty" that negatively affects small businesses, workers, and the general news sector during his presidency.
