Dwindling HelloFresh forecasters trigger significant stock decline
In a surprising move, HelloFresh, the popular meal kit delivery service, has lowered its earnings guidance for the year 2025. The company reported a 9.5% drop in second-quarter 2025 revenues to €1.7 billion, a figure that fell short of analysts' expectations.
The strong euro is the primary culprit behind HelloFresh's revised outlook. The currency's strength is reducing the value of the company's earnings when reported in euros, given that a significant portion of its revenues is generated outside the eurozone. This currency effect, combined with a decline in sales, particularly in the ready-to-eat (RTE) meal segment, has led to the company downgrading its 2025 financial targets.
The strong euro diminishes HelloFresh’s reported earnings and revenue growth by making foreign revenues less valuable in euro terms. Despite efforts like cost-cutting programs, margin expansion, and an increased share buyback program (up to €175 million), these have not fully offset the negative impact on earnings and investor sentiment.
The company now expects a 3–8% revenue decline for the full year, a significant increase from the previously projected maximum decline of 3%. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is expected to be between €415 million and €465 million, a decrease from the previous projection of €450 million to €500 million. Adjusted EBIT, as well as impairments, are now expected to reach €175 million to €225 million, up from the previous projection of €200 million to €250 million.
The increase in adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter to €158.5 million from €146.4 million is attributed to the ongoing efficiency program. However, this increase was not enough to counterbalance the negative effects of the strong euro and declining sales.
Investors have reacted negatively to the news, with HelloFresh's stock losing more than 5% on the Tradegate trading platform after Xetra trading hours. In regular trading, the stock closed 3.5% lower. At the current price of around €8, the stock is far from the highs it reached during the corona period, which were above €80.
Despite these challenges, HelloFresh remains optimistic about its long-term prospects. The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings, improving its efficiency, and continuing its cost-cutting measures to navigate these difficult times.
[1] HelloFresh Lowers 2025 Earnings Guidance
[2] Strong Euro Hits HelloFresh's 2025 Outlook
[3] HelloFresh Lowers 2025 Guidance on Strong Euro and Ready-to-Eat Meals
[4] Euro Strength Affects HelloFresh's 2025 Outlook
[5] HelloFresh Disappoints Investors with Lowered 2025 Guidance
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