Dollar futures plummet 8% in a single minute on the Moss Exchange.
In an unusual turn of events, dollar futures on the Moscow Exchange experienced a sharp drop and subsequent recovery on June 9, 2025. At 11:29 AM Moscow time, the price of dollar futures plummeted by 8.26%, reaching a low of 73.406 rubles. By 3:36 PM, the price had recovered slightly, trading at 79.85 rubles (-0.2%).
The cause of this sudden decline remains a topic of debate among experts. Yevgeny Avrakhov, the head of IFK "Option", suggested that the drop could be a result of a "fat finger" error, where an investor may have mistakenly set the price below the current one. Roman Andreyev, a private asset manager, on the other hand, proposed that the current spike could be related to the conversion of depositary receipts for Russian issuer stocks, as announced by the Central Bank last week.
The assumption of a "fat finger" error is based on the sudden and unusual nature of the drop. Similar anomalies were observed in longer dollar contract terms, such as those expiring in September or November. However, Roman Dmitriyev, a Telegram channel author, disputes this theory, suggesting a possible intentional test of the market at 74-75 rubles.
The drop in dollar and euro futures was also noted by "RBK Investments", but the search results do not contain specific information or explanation from RBK Investments regarding the sudden 8.26% drop in June dollar futures on June 9th, 2024, nor details about the subsequent recovery.
Such a sharp movement is possible due to the low liquidity in dollar futures after the sanctions on the Moscow Exchange, which stopped spot trading. Following the sanctions, trading in dollars and euros on the Moscow Exchange ceased and resumed on the Russian over-the-counter market.
The experts' assumptions are not without precedent. Similar anomalies were observed in June 2024, during the introduction of U.S. sanctions against the Moscow Exchange. However, the anomaly that occurred in June 2024 was initially dismissed as a "fat finger" error, but recurred after the sanctions were imposed.
Futures markets can be sensitive to a variety of factors such as central bank policy signals or announcements, macroeconomic reports, sudden risk-on/risk-off shifts in investor sentiment, and large speculative trading or technical correction around key chart levels. Without specific commentary or data from RBK Investments or other authoritative sources from that date, the precise driver of this specific event remains unclear.
For a definitive explanation, consulting RBK Investments directly or market reports from that period would be necessary.
The decline in dollar futures on the Moscow Exchange on June 9, 2025, might not solely be attributed to a "fat finger" error, as suggested by some experts. This new industry event bears resemblance to the anomaly observed in June 2024, when similar macroeconomic factors such as announcements in the banking-and-insurance sector and changes in finance policies could have potentially influenced the market. A thorough investigation involving consultations with authoritative sources like RBK Investments or market reports from that period might help shed light on the precise driver of this event.
