Daily update on Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Insights and Updates Directly from Ukraine (Feb 17)
Intercontinental Drama Unraveling.
On the European Stage, a Crooked Dance.
European figures gathered in Paris on February 17, 2023, for high-stakes discussions addressing the fallout from the new U.S. administration's departure from longstanding policies regarding the war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump's overtures towards Moscow, including potentially excluding European allies from peace negotiations, have caused apprehension throughout the continent, leaving NATO in disarray. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted leading EU dignitaries, including British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and others, to tackle what German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock described as an "existential moment" for Europe's security framework.
Anxiety has arisen due to senior U.S. officials criticizing European defense spending and democratic values. U.S. Vice President JD Vance's harsh words towards European policy at the Munich Security Conference, the world's foremost defense summit, were met with disapproval as delegates sought U.S. reassurance for Ukraine. By contrast, his speech was lauded by Trump for its bold stance.
A Suggestion for Joint European Armed Forces.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed creating a joint European military contingent, which could pave the way for the establishment of unified European armed forces – a significant leap forward for EU military integration. He acknowledged skepticism in some European capitals, as evidenced by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico's rejection of troop deployment to Ukraine or supporting Ukraine's NATO membership, and Poland's indicated unwillingness to contribute troops directly.
Troop Deployment Considerations.
The U.S. has proposed including third-country personnel, such as China and Brazil, in peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. According to Vance, a purely European contingent would be less effective in deterring further Russian aggression. The U.S. has, however, ruled out deploying its own forces. European officials are considering backing another force – France is preparing to contribute nearly 10,000 troops. In total, European nations are contemplating deploying up to 30,000 troops under a peace agreement framework.
High-Level U.S.-Russian Dialogue.
A high-level meeting between U.S. and Russian officials is set for February 18, 2023, in Saudi Arabia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will head their respective delegations to engage in discussions aimed at improving bilateral relations and exploring potential peace negotiations over the ongoing war in Ukraine.
U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, assured NATO officials in Brussels that the U.S. would not impose a peace deal on Ukraine. Although he has vowed to listen to all parties' perspectives, negotiations between the U.S. and Russia without EU participation could significantly reduce Ukraine's role in the peace processes.
A Potential Storm Cloud.
A leaked U.S. draft of an agreement between Washington and Kyiv has caused alarm in Ukraine. The draft includes Trump's demand for U.S. control over critical Ukrainian resources, including minerals, oil, gas, and related infrastructure. Under the proposed terms, the U.S. would claim half of Ukraine's recurring revenues from resource extraction, valued at an estimated $500 billion, and impose strict rights to future licenses, giving the U.S. near-total control over Ukraine's economic landscape.
This U.S. demand, described as tantamount to the economic colonization of Ukraine, has sparked panic among Ukrainian officials. The agreement could impose an unachievable financial burden on Ukraine, which is already grappling with the ongoing war. With Ukraine's mineral wealth often overstated and political pressures mounting, the country may face a difficult choice between resisting U.S. economic domination and ensuring its survival in the face of Russia's ongoing military assault.
An Annual Conference of Opinions.
At the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian philanthropist Victor Pinchuk organized a meeting between officials from the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine to discuss various perspectives on the ongoing peace talks. U.S. President Donald Trump's Ukraine envoy, General Keith Kellogg, highlighted the U.S. goal of ensuring a lasting and sustainable peace in Ukraine with minimal consequences, while focusing on Ukraine's sovereignty. Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olha Stefanishyna, reminded everyone of Russia's war crimes in Ukraine; Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, emphasized the need for increased European defense output and a strong stance against Russian influence.
The Chornobyl Inferno.
The protective shield at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, which has been off-line since 2000, burst into flames on February 14, 2023. Ukraine claims that Russia launched an attack on the facility using an Iranian-supplied Shahed 136 drone carrying high explosives. Russian authorities deny this allegation, and Ukraine has yet to provide evidence to support its claim. Firefighters successfully extinguished the blaze, and according to IAEA and Ukrainian officials, no radiation has leaked through the inner, intact layer of the damaged shield.
By Danylo Nosov and Alan Sacks
Enrichment Data:
Leading Europe's Efforts.
- Germany:
- Chancellor Olaf Scholz has actively engaged in peace talks to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. During the Paris talks, Scholz emphasized the importance of respecting international law and championed an inclusive and collaborative approach to seeking peace in Ukraine.
- France:
- French President Emmanuel Macron has played a pivotal role in fostering unity among European allies, urging them to stand together in the face of challenges posed by the U.S. administration's policy shifts. Macron's leadership has also focused on strengthening European defense capabilities, with France committing nearly 10,000 troops for peacekeeping missions.
- Britain:
- British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has championed British support for Ukraine amid increased tensions between the U.S. and EU. Starmer has emphasized the need for transatlantic solidarity and has pledged to work closely with allies to protect shared democratic values and interests.
- NATO:
- Allies within NATO have collectively worked towards bolstering their collective defense and deterring potential threats. Efforts include strengthening defense spending, equipping troops with modern weaponry, and conducting joint military exercises. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has emphasized the importance of maintaining unity among allies while engaging with Russia and other global powers.
In summary, the current state of U.S.-Europe relations concerning the war in Ukraine is characterized by increasing tensions and disagreements. The U.S. administration's policy changes, such as the potential exclusion of European allies from peace negotiations and stricter demands for Ukrainian resources, have stirred concerns among European leaders and NATO allies. European nations, including France, Germany, and Britain, have responded by bolstering their defense capabilities, investing in joint military operations, and advocating for a united front in challenging the U.S. administration's policies. It remains to be seen how this complex interplay of shifting alliances and interests will influence the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
- The concern over potential nuclear war crimes by Russia in Ukraine was a major topic at the Munich Security Conference, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urging NATO to take a stronger stance against Russian aggression.
- Donald Trump's previous administration's soft stance towards Russia and potential exclusion of NATO allies from peace negotiations have led to ‘nuclear anxiety’ among European leaders, particularly President Emmanuel Macron of France.
- At the 2023 Munich Security Conference, US Vice President JD Vance's harsh words towards European defense spending and democratic values were criticized by European delegates, causing further tension between the two sides.
- In response to the growing uncertainty and tensions, President Zelenskyy proposed creating a joint European military contingent, aiming to establish a unified European armed force, which has been met with skepticism from EU leaders like Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
- The UK, aware of the situation, has pledged support for Ukraine, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer emphasizing the need to stand with Ukraine and protect shared democratic values.
- The proposed deployment of third-country personnel in peacekeeping forces in Ukraine by the US, such as China and Brazil, was met with resistance from European leaders, who instead consider backing an all-European force to deter further Russian aggression.
- In light of these tensions and the ongoing Ukraine war, President Putin's Russia and President Trump's administration have scheduled high-level meetings to explore potential peace negotiations, raising concerns among EU leaders over the role of Ukraine in any future agreements.
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