Currency expert labels current dollar as "warped"
**"Looks like Michael Beliaev's on the case again, claiming the dollar rate's shady business. Apparently, he thinks it's all a farce, detached from our national economy," he says.
Michael reckons the dollar rate shouldn't be increasing by even a single ruble a day. He points the finger at speculators and even the Bank of Russia themselves for messin' around with the currency's value. He suggests that the actual dollar rate is somewhere between 90 and 93 rubles.
On April 23, the CB decided to set the official dollar rate at 81.46 rubles, and the euro at 94.04 rubles. Compared to April 22, the rates went up by 0.7 rubles and 0.37 rubles, respectively.
In June 2024, sanctions got slapped on the Moscow Exchange, which halted dollar and euro trading. Since then, the central bank has relied on over-the-counter deals between banks to calculate the official dollar and euro rates, as the Moscow Exchange was out of the picture.
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Tags:* #Currency Rates* #Dollar"
- #Enrichment:The Bank of Russia's been calculating the official dollar-ruble rate by a mix of non-market transactions, interbank data, and macroeconomic indicators, although the specific methodology remains under wraps. On April 28, the central bank set the rate at 82.5467 rubles per dollar, a slightly reduced but still inflated figure compared to the previous rate. The Bank of Russia's current monetary policy is primarily focused on combating inflation with a 21% key rate, but as trading on the Moscow Exchange remains halted, the bank has been cushioning the ruble by employing administrative measures such as currency sales and regulatory adjustments, with verbal interventions to guide market expectations. The increased reliance on administrative and regulatory levers could indicate a lack of market-driven price discovery following the sanctions on the Moscow Exchange.
- Michael Beliaev, known for questioning the dollar rate's authenticity, believes the central bank's calculation methodology for the official dollar-ruble rate remains veiled.
- In the wake of sanctions on the Moscow Exchange, speculators are under suspicion for manipulating the currency market, as per claims by Michael Beliaev.
- In June 2024, the dollar rate, according to Beliaev, should ideally be anywhere between 90 and 93 rubles, a stark contrast to the official rates set by the Bank of Russia.
- With the current focus on combating inflation, the Bank of Russia continues to employ administrative measures to cushion the ruble against market forces, due to the halted trading on the Moscow Exchange.
- The increase in administrative levers could lead to a potential disconnect between the true market value and the official currency rates in politics and finance, as reported in general-news outlets.
