Currency devaluation: Tenge gains strength over Dollar on August 19
Kazakhstan's Economy: A Mixed Bag of Challenges and Opportunities
In the heart of Central Asia, Kazakhstan's economy is currently navigating a complex landscape, marked by shifting exchange rates, fluctuating oil prices, and evolving business regulations.
Currency Market Fluctuations
Over the past day, the dollar rate has decreased by 1.27 tenge, now sitting between 538.5 and 539 tenge in exchange offices across the country. Meanwhile, the euro and ruble exchange rates have remained relatively stable, with the sale rate for the euro between 627 and 630 tenge, and the sale rate for the ruble between 6.73 and 6.8 tenge.
Simplified Business Regulations
In a significant move, changes in business regulations in Kazakhstan have been simplified for business owners, potentially easing the operational burden for many enterprises.
SMEs Struggle Amidst Currency Depreciation
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are facing a challenging environment, with the depreciation of the tenge leading to increased costs for imported inputs. This situation is intensifying inflationary pressures and squeezing profit margins. However, infrastructure spending may ultimately benefit SMEs through improved economic conditions, albeit in the long term.
Oil Prices and Fiscal Pressures
As of August 2025, Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 are hovering around $66 per barrel, below Kazakhstan’s fiscal budget assumptions. This shortfall in oil prices has exerted downward pressure on the tenge, as oil revenues are a key driver of Kazakhstan’s economy and currency stability.
Economic Growth and GDP
Despite increased government spending on infrastructure and social projects, Kazakhstan's GDP growth has reached 6.3% year-to-date. However, the weaker tenge and lower-than-expected oil prices have introduced macroeconomic challenges, inhibiting robust GDP growth. The official outlook suggests continuing economic and fiscal pressures, with the tenge unlikely to recover strongly in the near term.
In summary, Kazakhstan’s currency and oil price dynamics in 2025 are creating a challenging macroeconomic environment, with direct negative impacts on GDP growth and the operating conditions of SMEs. The recent simplification of business regulations may provide some relief, but the overall situation remains complex and uncertain.
Sources: 1, 2, 5
Note: The figures provided for exchange rates and oil prices are as of the latest available data.
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