Could Francois Bayrou Secure the Position of French Prime Minister?
France is currently grappling with a constitutional predicament, surrounded by economically challenging circumstances (it underwent another credit rating downgrade over the weekend).
The choice of President Emmanuel Macron to select François Bayrou might not be the most effective solution to resolve this predicament. Bayrou, the head of a centrist party (MoDem), has been a significant figure in French politics for some time. On a personal level, despite sharing the same age, he stands in stark contrast to Michel Barnier – Bayrou hails from the deep south of France, grew up in a financially struggling, agricultural background, and has a reputation for being challenging to deal with. According to reports, Macron chose not to assign him the prime minister position; however, Bayrou's alleged outburst was so intense that Macron was forced to appoint him.
Bayrou harbors many adversaries within French politics (particularly Nicolas Sarkozy), and I find it challenging to recall a political figure who has been as viciously ridiculed in the media. Nevertheless, in recent years, Bayrou has served as a close advisor to Macron (originally slated to join the first Macron cabinet but fell prey to a minor party funding scandal – Marine Le Pen also faces similar accusations, albeit on a larger scale).
At this stage, the question arises whether Bayrou has a viable path to success. If so, it lies in a comprehensive, centrist government that bridges the gap between the left and right, potentially quieting the radical right.
He is expected to retain the conservative interior minister Bruno Retailleau but then shift towards the Socialists (Bayrou supported the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande in the 2012 election), and may add former prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve to his cabinet, possibly even Gabriel Attal – the young Macronist. Bayrou has also begun assembling his administrative team, comprising seasoned 'centrist' bureaucrats.
In an attempt to foster a less adversarial relationship with parliament, Bayrou has already met with Marine Le Pen this week, with reports suggesting that the encounter ended amicably. It is noteworthy that if he can reach an agreement with her, the budgetary reform process will simultaneously be heavily restricted (parliament has voted for the 'loi spéciale' that prevents a shutdown).
Ultimately, if Bayrou can build a broad coalition, the government has a chance of passing a budget and subsequently returning to topics like immigration. Publicly, Bayrou's character and background are both beneficial (to the French people) and detrimental (to his colleagues).
Bayrou has a few weeks to put together a genuine centrist government – he is already discussing names with Macron (this process is delayed due to an environmental disaster in Mayotte). The issue is that the primary parties, influential figures, and analysts in French public life are keeping an eye on both the upcoming election (after June) and the possibility that Macron is vulnerable. This political outlook for the next six months will likely make it more volatile, and we cannot rule out another crisis in the following few months.
Despite Macron's initial plans to appoint Bayrou as prime minister, the chose not to due to Bayrou's alleged outburst. Le Pen, Bayrou's political adversary, has reportedly met with him in an attempt to foster a less adversarial relationship, which could potentially restrict parliament's budgetary reform process. Bayron's forthcoming challenge is to build a broad coalition and put together a genuine centrist government, all while navigating the volatile political landscape in France, which is heavily influenced by the upcoming election and the possibility of Macron's vulnerability.