Could a significant Bitcoin option worth $2.5 billion potentially influence market trends?
Weekend's almost here, but not before a significant options expiry event rockets through the crypto markets. With Bitcoin and Ethereum at the forefront, today's the day that could shape their futures.
Nearly 27k Bitcoin options contracts, worth approximately $2.54 billion, are due to expire on May 2nd, 2025. This week's options volume is on par with recent ones, with derivatives markets showing faint signs of recovery in spot markets.
Crucial Bitcoin Levels
The "put/call" ratio for these expiring contracts stands at 1, suggesting a balanced mix of long and short positions. The max pain level is calculated at a whopping $90,000. On the other hand, the most active level for unsettled Bitcoin options sits at $100,000, with a total notional value of around $1.5 billion, hinting at optimistic bets on a price surge. However, sizable open positions can also be seen at $80,000 and $65,000 levels, indicating active short positions.
Investment firm Greeks Live predicts Bitcoin's short and medium-term volatility is diminishing, with no significant price swings expected. "While Bitcoin price may bounce around $95,000, market sensitivity remains low, with only gradual improvement," they said. Deribit also confirms the calmness in the derivatives market, with low short-term volatility and balanced funding rates close to zero.
Ethereum's Expiry Too
Around 175,000 Ethereum options contracts, worth $317 million, will also expire on the same day, with a max loss level of $1,800 and a put/call ratio of 87. By the end of the day, a total of $2.85 billion worth of crypto options contracts will have expired.
Crypto Market Outlook
As we count down the hours to wrap up the week, the crypto market is gearing up for a positive close. After trading sideways, the total market capitalization has inched up to a hefty $3.12 trillion.
Crypto heavyweights Bitcoin and Ethereum saw some ups and downs during the week. BTC staged a comeback, hitting a high of $97,340 on Wednesday, only to dip below $97,000 on Friday. Despite the minor setback, Bitcoin remains up by 3% compared to the previous week. Ethereum peaked at a one-month high of $1,860, but prices remains volatile across the market. ETH has only managed a 2% gain on a weekly basis.
Notable Altcoins
Other altcoins to keep an eye on include Dogecoin, Avalanche, Litecoin, and Hyperliquid.
Stay tuned as the crypto markets stage a thrilling showdown in the coming hours! 🚀🚀
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Sources:\1. CoinMarketCap2. Coinalyze3. Glassnode4. CoinDesk5. Bloomberg*
- The upcoming options expiry event, happening on May 2nd, 2025, is poised to significantly impact not only Bitcoin but also Ethereum, with more than 27k Bitcoin options contracts and around 175k Ethereum options contracts set to expire.
- While the Bitcoin options expiry has a max pain level of $90,000, the most active level for unsettled Bitcoin options stands at $100,000, suggesting optimistic bets on a price surge.
- Investment firm Greeks Live predicts that Bitcoin's short and medium-term volatility is decreasing, with no significant price swings expected.
- Aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins like Dogecoin, Avalanche, Litecoin, and Hyperliquid are also worth keeping an eye on in the crypto market's upcoming showdown.
