Competitor businesses may capitalize on a significant $10 billion opening due to unfavorable news within the healthcare stock market.
In the rapidly growing weight management market, oral GLP-1 receptor agonists are emerging as a significant new category, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk at the forefront.
Despite a recent setback for Eli Lilly, the company remains a buy due to its strong financial results, a robust GLP-1 portfolio, blockbusters in other areas, and an expanding pipeline through acquisitions and licensing agreements. The setback came from the results of a phase 3 study for Eli Lilly's investigational oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron.
Novo Nordisk, on the other hand, is currently conducting phase 3 studies for amycretin, an investigational weight loss medicine, in both subcutaneous and oral formulations. If amycretin proves more effective than orforglipron in these studies, Novo Nordisk could be one of the biggest winners in the oral GLP-1 space.
The competition between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk is intense, with both companies vying for a share in the predicted $20 billion oral GLP-1 market by 2030, a significant portion of which could come from sales for weight management due to the growing popularity of anti-obesity medicines and the advantages that oral ones would confer.
Orforglipron has demonstrated substantial weight loss efficacy in recent Phase III trials, achieving up to 12.4% weight loss after 72 weeks in its highest dose group. However, it trails Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1, which showed approximately 13.6% weight loss. Eli Lilly plans to file for FDA approval for orforglipron in late 2025, aiming to be the first oral GLP-1RA explicitly approved for obesity.
In addition to orforglipron, Eli Lilly is developing retatrutide, a next-generation injectable multi-hormone agonist targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon, which has shown even more impressive weight loss results in Phase 2 studies—up to 24% weight loss—with Phase 3 data expected later in 2025.
Novo Nordisk currently leads the market with Wegovy (injectable semaglutide) and also has an oral GLP-1 in development that demonstrated slightly better weight loss than Lilly’s oral candidate in trials.
The success of oral GLP-1s will depend on regulatory approvals, relative efficacy versus injectables and competitors, safety profiles, and pricing in a rapidly evolving market. Oral GLP-1s could broaden access and appeal due to convenience compared to injectables; however, cost and competitive efficacy will shape market uptake. GLP-1 therapies remain expensive, with drugs like Wegovy costing over $13,000 annually.
Smaller biotechs such as Viking Therapeutics and Structure Therapeutics are also working on oral GLP-1s, adding to the competition in this promising segment.
Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have the potential to deliver strong returns over the long term, with their positions in the diabetes and weight management markets, exciting candidates in other areas, and their commitment to innovation in oral GLP-1 therapies.
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- The competition in the oral GLP-1 market is intense, with finance playing a significant role as both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk invest heavily in research and development to secure a share of the predicted $20 billion market by 2030.
- For investors, the developments in the oral GLP-1 space offer promising prospects, as both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have shown strong financial results and are committed to innovation in this promising segment, such as Eli Lilly's investigational oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, and Novo Nordisk's amycretin.
- As the oral GLP-1 market evolves, factors like regulatory approvals, relative efficacy, safety profiles, and pricing will significantly impact the market's growth and the financial performance of companies involved, making the science and medical-conditions surrounding these therapies crucial for investors to consider.
