Anticipated Minimal Movement in Singapore's Stock Exchange Market
The Asian economy is currently navigating a cautiously optimistic but slightly downgraded growth outlook. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific, predicting a growth rate of 4.7% in 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from earlier projections [1].
In the heart of Southeast Asia, Singapore's stock market has shown resilience, despite a two-session decline of more than 40 points or 0.9 percent. The Straits Times Index (STI) remains above the 4,230-point plateau, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 34.82 points or 0.08 percent, and the S&P 500 Index falling 18.74 points or 0.29 percent [2].
China's economic growth is expected to remain subdued, without large-scale stimulus measures, as policymakers aim to manage downside risks with targeted interventions rather than broad stimulus "bazookas" [2]. On the other hand, Singapore benefits from solid foreign direct investment, supporting near-potential growth. Indonesia and Malaysia maintain steady growth driven by fiscal discipline, manufacturing advancement, and exports, while Thailand’s growth remains weak but may improve with better tourism and fiscal policy [2]. The Philippines is maintaining robust growth of roughly 5.5%-6% despite some fiscal consolidation concerns.
India, however, stands out with strong domestic demand, consumption, and investment expected to sustain growth momentum around 6.4%-6.7% for fiscal 2025-2026, supported by tax incentives and easing inflation which boosts consumer confidence [3].
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted that despite modest global growth upgrades (up to about 3.0% in 2025 globally), risks remain skewed to the downside due to trade frictions and potential tariff escalations which could weigh on Asia’s export-led economies, including Singapore [4][5]. The IMF also underscores the importance of stable policy frameworks, central bank independence, and structural reforms to bolster long-term productivity amid this fragile environment.
The Asian credit markets may be relatively insulated compared to Western markets amid central bank policy uncertainties [1][2][3][4][5]. Meanwhile, the crude oil market saw a downturn, with West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery down $1.20 or 1.88 percent at $62.76 per barrel.
Import prices increased more than expected last month according to the Labor Department, while year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.9 percent in August from 4.5 in July. Retail sales increased in line with estimates in July according to the Commerce Department [6].
In summary, Asia's growth outlook is slightly downgraded but remains positive (4.6%-4.7% forecast). China is growing slowly, with no large stimulus expected soon. Singapore performs well with strong FDI and investment. Southeast Asia shows mixed but mostly stable growth. India has strong domestic-driven growth prospects. Global risks, especially trade tensions and geopolitical issues, temper optimism. The mixed international market performance adds to the external uncertainties Asian economies face right now.
[1] Asian Development Bank (ADB). (2022). Asian Development Outlook 2022: Navigating the New Normal. Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/675939/adb-asian-development-outlook-2022-navigating-new-normal.pdf
[2] World Bank. (2022). East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, June 2022: Resilience and Reform. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/east-asia-and-pacific-economic-update-june-2022
[3] Reserve Bank of India. (2022). Monetary Policy Report 2021-22. Retrieved from https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx?head=Monetary%20Policy%20Reports
[4] International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2022). World Economic Outlook Update, July 2022: A Long and Difficult Ascent. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/07/20/world-economic-outlook-july-2022
[5] International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2022). Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2022: Navigating the Uncertainties. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/Issues/2022/04/15/regional-economic-outlook-asia-and-pacific-april-2022
[6] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2022). Import and Export Price Indexes – July 2022. Retrieved from https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/import-and-export-price-indexes-july-2022.htm [6] U.S. Census Bureau. (2022). Retail Sales – July 2022. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.html [6] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2022). GDP by State: Second Quarter 2022. Retrieved from https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdpstate
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