Anticipated decrease in fuel prices
In recent times, the prices of diesel and petrol in Portugal have been on an upward trajectory, following global trends and local market conditions.
As of Monday, the average price of regular 95 petrol will be €1.685 per litre, while the average price of regular diesel will be €1.562 per litre. However, these figures are subject to confirmation and may still change before Monday.
This week, diesel prices increased by 6.7 cents, lower than market expectations of an appreciation of eight cents. Petrol prices, on the other hand, rose by 2.2 cents, below the anticipated three-cent increase. Despite these increases, diesel prices have experienced a significant drop since April 14, 2021, marking the biggest decrease in over a year.
These price changes are based on the average prices charged at the pumps on Monday, as published by the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG). It's important to note that the prices charged to the end consumer may vary according to the gas station.
The behavior of the exchange market and the closing of Brent oil prices this Friday may also influence the prices of diesel and petrol. Any depreciation of the euro against the dollar would translate into higher fuel prices in Portugal.
Looking back, petrol prices in Portugal rose from approximately 1.85 USD/liter in March 2025 to 1.92 USD/liter in April and further to 2.01 USD/liter by the end of June 2025. Diesel prices, while not explicitly specified, have likely followed a similar upward trajectory, given the usual tax structures and market conditions in Western Europe.
Regarding the broader context, Brent crude oil prices experienced significant volatility in recent years, with a sharp plummet of about 75% between mid-January and mid-April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by June 2022, Brent crude had risen sharply to $127 per barrel, the highest since August 2014.
Econometric forecasting models predict that petrol prices in Portugal are expected to trend upward, reaching around 1.94 USD/liter by the end of the third quarter of 2025 and potentially 2.02 USD/liter in 2026 and 2.07 USD/liter by 2027.
In summary, fuel prices in Portugal have increased through 2023 and into 2025 with expectations of further moderate rises, mainly driven by Brent crude oil prices and currency exchange market behavior. It is crucial for consumers to keep an eye on these trends to make informed decisions about their fuel consumption.
In light of the projected trends, the finance industry in Portugal might see an increase in household expenses due to rising fuel prices, particularly in Q3 of 2025 and beyond. The energy sector, meanwhile, should closely monitor the news regarding currency exchange rates and Brent crude oil prices as these factors significantly influence diesel and petrol prices in Portugal.
